Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, known as the "New Fed Wire Service," was the first to advise that the Fed could increase rates by another 75 basis points in September.
Timiraos asserts that recent public statements and interviews by Fed officials suggest that little has been done to head off market expectations of a third consecutive 75 basis point rate increase.
On Thursday, Goldman Sachs followed suit, raising its forecasts for how much the Fed will raise rates in September and November, with economists including Jan Hatzius noting in a note:
The Fed is now anticipated to increase rates by 75 basis points this month, 50 basis points in November and 25 basis points in December, taking its benchmark rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.74% by year-end.
That compares with a forecast of 50 basis points in September and 25 basis points in November 39bet-xì dách-phỏm miền bắc-tiến lên miền bắc-xóc đĩa-game bắn cá.
Goldman cited the following reasons for the rise:
Fed officials have been sounding hawkish lately, seeming to suggest that progress in taming inflation isn't as consistent or swift as they'd like.
At the time of writing, the market now sees a 78% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike in September, and a 222% chance of a 50 basis point rate hike, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
It's worth noting that Goldman's views came as the Fed's second in line, Brainard, faltered that further rate hikes were required and that the Fed would have to increase rates to restrictive levels, while warning that risks would become more two-sided going forward.
As inflation began to surge in the second half of 2021, the Fed was slow to respond and is now swiftly increasing interest rates to counter red-hot inflation. The Fed raised rates by 75 basis points twice in a row at its June and July meetings and said it would do so again at its September meeting.
In addition, Goldman Sachs economists say tighter policy will keep U.S. growth below potential in the second half of the year. In 2023, it is unclear how the drag from tighter financial conditions will be offset with other key growth drivers, with the rate hike cycle extending beyond this year.